Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.021796 2.139972 2.264169 2.404896 2.560509 2.727990 2.922775
2025-08-17 1.831864 1.993045 2.170427 2.381781 2.628990 2.911851 3.264254
2025-08-24 1.704875 1.889181 2.098431 2.356664 2.671232 3.048139 3.543873
2025-08-31 1.623068 1.825076 2.060280 2.359112 2.735950 3.206127 3.855919
2025-09-07 1.563130 1.779745 2.037483 2.373415 2.810411 3.376432 4.196636
2025-09-14 1.490323 1.712905 1.982146 2.340072 2.817245 3.454283 4.414618
2025-09-21 1.426105 1.652295 1.929797 2.305092 2.816379 3.517829 4.614709
2025-09-28 1.365510 1.592742 1.874856 2.262006 2.799404 3.554562 4.775054
2025-10-05 1.342606 1.579282 1.877572 2.294640 2.887801 3.748194 5.202667
2025-10-12 1.323205 1.568910 1.883035 2.330227 2.981552 3.956847 5.684041
2025-10-19 1.302064 1.554964 1.882503 2.356561 3.062520 4.152157 6.172247
2025-10-26 1.267797 1.522128 1.854719 2.342124 3.080379 4.247075 6.490865
2025-11-02 1.234614 1.489991 1.827114 2.327265 3.097752 4.344869 6.836675
2025-11-09 1.200976 1.456032 1.795558 2.304826 3.101433 4.419432 7.149224
2025-11-16 1.169123 1.423332 1.764325 2.280988 3.100739 4.485447 7.454986
2025-11-23 1.147807 1.404195 1.751208 2.283306 3.142011 4.629476 7.960853
2025-11-30 1.131349 1.391074 1.745903 2.296864 3.202243 4.813933 8.603215
2025-12-07 1.102028 1.359167 1.712457 2.265254 3.183845 4.847236 8.882346
2025-12-14 1.073774 1.327963 1.678988 2.232075 3.160561 4.868606 9.136090
2025-12-21 1.044625 1.294760 1.641608 2.191185 3.121443 4.855026 9.294357
2025-12-28 1.037716 1.292646 1.649463 2.222158 3.210297 5.108584 10.268319
2026-01-04 1.031875 1.291767 1.658934 2.255917 3.306273 5.388962 11.428846
2026-01-11 1.023849 1.287454 1.663015 2.280888 3.387764 5.648966 12.638775